Research on the Impact of Crude Oil Price Fluctuation Based on EGARCH Model

At present, the largest commodity futures variety in global market is crude oil futures, which plays a role price discovery, risk hedging, and stabilizing international prices. The fluctuation of its key issue that governments, investors, scholars around world pay attention to. This paper establishes GARCH model EGARCH under three distribution states t distribution, Normal GED distribution. Then, through comparison, it was found with t-distribution had best fitting effect. Finally, predicted within outside sample. It impact financial crisis 2008 COVID-19 epidemic, prices fluctuated rapidly violently, indicating International incident have great on innovation research lies comparing different distributions based models, depict characteristics asymmetry.